Outline
ToggleThe tranquil waters of the Mekong Delta have long been home to Vietnam’s thriving pangasius industry. But lately, these waters have been anything but calm. At VNSeafoodInsider, we’ve been monitoring a perfect storm brewing on the horizon for Vietnam’s pangasius sector. Just as farmers were finally seeing some light after years of pandemic-induced challenges, a new threat looms large – U.S. tariffs that could fundamentally reshape the economics of this crucial export.
Like a fisherman watching storm clouds gather in the distance, industry veterans are eyeing the latest developments with a mixture of concern and determination. The pangasius fish price, which had been showing promising signs of recovery, now faces significant downward pressure that could ripple through the entire supply chain.

Recent Pangasius Price Trends Before the Tariff Announcement
The first quarter of 2025 had brought welcome news for pangasius farmers across the Mekong Delta. After enduring years of razor-thin margins, farmgate prices had finally climbed to respectable levels.
As of early April 2025, pangasius fish prices were hovering between 30,700-31,500 VND/kg for standard 800-900g fish, while larger specimens above 1.1kg were commanding premium prices of 32,000-32,500 VND/kg.
“This is a very encouraging price, the first we’ve seen in three years,” noted Mr. Duong Nghia Quoc, Chairman of the Vietnam Pangasius Association, in a recent statement that captured the cautious optimism spreading through farming communities.
For context, pangasius fish price levels were providing farmers with margins of approximately 3,500-4,000 VND/kg – modest by some standards, but a significant improvement over the loss-making conditions that had forced many smaller operations to abandon production entirely during 2023-2024. The price recovery had primarily been driven by reduced supply, as many farmers had scaled back operations following sustained losses in previous seasons.
The market had begun showing interesting segmentation patterns as well. While standard-sized fish (800-900g) prices had stabilized, larger pangasius (above 1.1kg) saw increased demand from Chinese buyers, creating a two-tier market that savvy farmers were learning to navigate.
Understanding the New US Tariff Structure
Just as the sector was finding its footing, the announcement of new U.S. tariffs sent shockwaves through the industry. On April 9, 2025, the incoming U.S. administration announced a 90-day grace period for 75 countries, including Vietnam, before implementing reciprocal tariffs. During this three-month window, Vietnamese pangasius exports to the U.S. will face a flat 10% tariff – already a significant hurdle, but merely a prelude to what could follow.
The real concern lies in what happens after this grace period expires. Barring successful negotiations between Washington and Hanoi, Vietnamese seafood exports would face a 46% reciprocal tariff rate. For an industry operating on single-digit margins, such a tariff level would effectively Vietnamese pangasius fish price out of the American market.
To put this in perspective, the U.S. has traditionally been Vietnam’s second-largest pangasius market, regularly accounting for over $300 million in annual imports. In 2022, a particularly strong year, U.S. imports of Vietnamese pangasius peaked at approximately $620 million. Even in the challenging conditions of 2023, the U.S. market still absorbed around $300 million worth of Vietnamese pangasius.
These figures may seem abstract, but they translate directly to livelihoods across the Mekong Delta, where pangasius farming and processing employ hundreds of thousands of workers. The tariff’s timing couldn’t be more challenging, coming just as the industry was regaining its footing after several difficult years.
Read more: Pangasius Quality Control – How to Avoid Quality Issues When Importing Pangasius -> click here
Major Processors in the Crosshairs
Not all companies will feel the impact equally. Among Vietnamese exporters, those with the highest exposure to the U.S. market stand to lose the most.
Based on February 2025 export data, Vinh Hoan Corporation leads pangasius exports to the U.S. with a commanding 42.06% market share. Behind them, Bien Dong Seafood follows with 20.02%, while VDTG (14.20%), Casemex (10.21%), and NTSF (5.96%) round out the top five exporters to the American market.
Top pangasius exporters to US in Feb 2025 (Subject HS code 030432 & 030462)
Pangasius Exporter | Market share (%) |
Vinh Hoan | 42.06% |
Bien Dong | 20.02% |
VDTG | 14.20% |
Casemex | 10.21% |
NTSF | 5.96% |
(Source: Vietnam export data)
For Vinh Hoan, the stakes couldn’t be higher – more than half of their total revenue comes from U.S. sales. Years of carefully cultivated relationships with American retailers and foodservice distributors are now at risk. Similarly, Bien Dong faces significant exposure with their heavy reliance on U.S. customers.
These companies have invested millions in state-of-the-art processing facilities designed specifically to meet U.S. regulatory requirements and consumer preferences. Modern production lines, HACCP systems, and extensive quality control measures were all implemented with the American market in mind. Now, the economic viability of these investments hangs in the balance.
The situation reminds us of an old Vietnamese proverb about not putting all your fish in one basket. Those companies that diversified their export markets in recent years may weather this storm better than their more U.S.-focused competitors.
See more: Vietnam Pangasius Market Trends and Forecast 2025
Strategic Price Adjustments in Response to Market Changes
The market is responding strategically to recent policy developments. US importers and Vietnamese suppliers are engaging in constructive negotiations to navigate the changing trade landscape. Processors, with their deep market understanding, are skillfully balancing relationships between buyers and farmers who have earned their recent profitability.

A key industry advantage is emerging: most Vietnamese exporters have secured DDP (Delivered Duty Paid) contracts with US buyers. This favorable position enables exporters to request reasonable pangasius fish price adjustments from buyers to address the tariff changes. This contractual structure provides a valuable buffer that helps maintain stability throughout the supply chain.
Leading companies like Vinh Hoan and Bien Dong are demonstrating remarkable adaptability by implementing sophisticated market strategies. They’re simultaneously:
- Preserving valuable US market relationships
- Pursuing productive discussions through industry associations
- Expanding their presence in diverse global markets
Small and medium-sized processors are showing impressive agility by reassessing shipment timing to maximize value. This thoughtful approach allows them to optimize delivery schedules based on market conditions.
The consumer price for pangasius in the US market will adjust accordingly, reflecting its continued excellent value compared to alternative seafood options. Contract prices will increase moderately, but the product’s strong market position ensures continued competitive advantage even with these adjustments.
Projected Impact on Pangasius Fish Prices
Looking forward, the tariff situation creates a complex pricing environment for pangasius. Based on our analysis at VNSeafoodInsider, we project several key trends.

Short-term Market Dynamics (1-3 months)
In the immediate term, we anticipate a strategic export surge as processors maximize shipments during the 90-day grace period before tariff implementation. This proactive approach will help maintain market stability. Pangasius fish prices may experience only a modest adjustment of 1,000-2,000 VND/kg for standard 800-900g fish. Premium-sized fish (1.1kg+) will likely maintain strong value due to consistent Chinese demand, providing a valuable market segment unaffected by U.S. policy changes.
Medium-term Growth Adaptation (3-9 months)
As the market adjusts post-grace period, the pangasius industry has significant advantages to leverage. While U.S. imports may decrease by 30-50%, Vietnam’s position as the world’s primary pangasius producer provides substantial bargaining power. Even with higher tariffs, pangasius remains competitively priced compared to alternative white fish options for U.S. consumers, which will preserve a significant portion of this valuable market.
This transition period presents an excellent opportunity for industry modernization and market diversification. Forward-thinking producers and processors will:
- Expand their presence in China’s growing premium seafood market
- Capitalize on improving consumer sentiment in the EU
- Develop stronger positions in Southeast Asian markets
- Continue building on impressive growth in Middle Eastern countries
Long-term Positive Outlook (9+ months)
The natural market adjustment process will lead to a more resilient, diversified pangasius sector. Price stabilization will occur as supply aligns with new market realities and distribution channels optimize. The industry structure will evolve strategically, shifting focus toward EU and Asian markets while maintaining a right-sized U.S. presence.
This transformation will ultimately create a stronger, more balanced global pangasius trade network less vulnerable to single-market policy shifts. Producers who embrace efficiency improvements and targeted marketing strategies will emerge stronger and more profitable in this new landscape.
See more: Top 6 Vietnam Seafood Export Products 2024 – Market Insights and Trends 2025
Farmer Responses and Adaptation Strategies
Pangasius farmers, no strangers to market volatility, are already developing adaptation strategies. At VNSeafoodInsider, we’ve identified several approaches gaining traction:
- Selective harvesting: Some farmers are accelerating harvest of sizes preferred by U.S. processors (800-900g) while allowing larger fish to grow further for Chinese markets.
- Extended growing cycles: With larger fish commanding premium prices from Chinese buyers, more farmers are extending growing periods despite higher feed costs.
- Input cost optimization: Facing potential price pressure, farmers are scrutinizing feed efficiencies and exploring alternative protein sources to reduce production costs.
- Stocking adjustments: Many farms are reducing fingerling stocking densities by 20-30% compared to previous cycles, anticipating lower demand in coming months.
- Contract negotiations: Some larger farming operations are seeking minimum price guarantees from processors in exchange for consistent supply commitments.
As one farmer in An Giang province shared: “We’ve seen difficult markets before. When pangasius prices fell in 2019, many quit, but those of us who improved efficiency survived. We’ll do the same now.”
This resilience will be tested in the coming months, but the pangasius farming community has demonstrated remarkable adaptability over decades of development. The current challenge, while significant, is unlikely to deal a fatal blow to an industry that has overcome numerous obstacles in its evolution.
Processor and Exporter Diversification Efforts
For processors and exporters, the tariff situation accelerates diversification strategies that were already underway. Several major companies had begun reducing U.S. market dependence following earlier trade disputes, though the pace of diversification will now intensify dramatically.
China represents the most obvious alternative destination, with its massive market and proximity advantages. However, Chinese buyers typically favor different product specifications and often negotiate aggressively on price, making it an imperfect substitute for the premium U.S. market.
European markets offer stable pricing but continue to maintain strict regulatory requirements that increase compliance costs. Middle Eastern markets show promising growth but lack the volume capacity to fully replace U.S. demand.
The most successful companies will likely pursue multi-market strategies rather than seeking a single replacement for U.S. sales. This approach requires greater production flexibility, as different markets demand different product forms, sizes, and packaging – increasing operational complexity but reducing vulnerability to market-specific disruptions.
What Does This Mean for You?
If you’re connected to the pangasius industry, whether as a farmer, processor, exporter, or service provider, these developments demand careful attention and proactive planning. The next 3-6 months will likely bring significant market adjustments that could create both challenges and opportunities.
For farmers, careful cost management and strategic harvest timing will be crucial. Consider working closely with your processors/supplier to understand their evolving market needs and adjust production accordingly. This might be a good time to experiment with alternative growing methods or feeding regimes that could lower your break-even point.
For processors and exporters, diversification efforts should accelerate immediately. Don’t wait for the full tariff impact to hit before developing new market relationships. Consider forming strategic alliances with other processors to access markets where you may lack established connections.
For seafood buyers, the coming months may present opportunities to secure Vietnamese pangasius at competitive prices as suppliers seek to replace U.S. volume. However, quality variations may increase as producers adjust to new market requirements.
Vietnam Pangasius Industry- Ready to Overcome Challenges and Embrace the Future
Vietnam’s pangasius industry has proven its extraordinary strength over decades. Since its commercial development in the 1990s, the industry has overcome numerous challenges including disease outbreaks, trade barriers, and the COVID-19 pandemic.The pangasius sector has always found ways to adapt and thrive when faced with obstacles. This time will be no different!
While pangasius fish prices may adjust in the coming months, the industry’s foundation remains solid. Just like the hardy pangasius fish that thrives in the Mekong’s changing waters, our industry will navigate these new currents with confidence. The future remains bright for Vietnam’s pangasius, with greater diversification and increased global presence on the horizon.
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